Atlanta Falcons
Notable Free Agents: Tony Gonzalez
(TE), Brent Grimes (CB), Sam Baker (LT)
Holes: Cornerback, Defensive End,
Running Back
The Falcons were not far away at all
from their second Super Bowl appearance in franchise history last
season, and unfortunately for them, the main reason for them falling
short is not able to be fixed through free agency or the draft, but
through a change at the top – the conservative decision making of
head coach Mike Smith, which let the 49ers back into the NFC
Championship game and would have let the Seahawks snatch victory over
Atlanta a round earlier if not for a miracle drive from Matt Ryan.
Still, Smith is unlikely to change his ways – and owner Arthur
Blank unlikely to change his head coach – any time soon, so we may
as well focus on what holes can
be filled through FA and the draft.
Perhaps
unsurprisingly, the three holes I see in the roster correspond to
three veteran players who the Falcons cut to save cap room: Dunta
Robinson, John Abraham and Michael Turner. Robinson was definitely
over paid, but with the team unable to reach a deal with free agent
Brent Grimes, the Falcons have been left very thin at corner, with
Asante Samuel now the only starting-calibre corner on the roster; the
situation would have been even worse if the team hadn't been able to
re-sign safety William Moore. If Atlanta can't come to an agreement
with Grimes in the few hours before FA kicks off, expect them to go
after a corner aggressively this offseason.
Cutting
their best pass rusher in John Abraham, who has averaged 11 sacks a
year over the past three seasons and was responsible for a third of
their sacks in 2012, was always going to be a difficult decision, as
there was little behind him to bring heat to opposing quarterbacks.
Defensive end is a position that is sorely in need of upgrade if
Atlanta hope to take the next step in the post-season – unless, of
course, there was more to the hiring of Mike Nolan last offseason (a
3-4 guru) than initially met the eye?
On the
other side of the ball, the Falcons will need to find a new running
back – Jacquizz Rodgers is simply not built to tote the rock
down-in, down-out. Still, running backs are a dime a dozen, so I
imagine Atlanta will wait to draft a ball carrier in the mid rounds
rather than look to free agency to fill this hole. Assuming Tony
Gonzalez comes back, though, the Falcons merely need to fill those
self-inflicted holes to be in with a real shot at post-season glory –
as long as Mike Smith doesn't get in the way of Mike Smith.
Carolina Panthers
Notable Free Agents: None, really
Holes: Cornerback, Defensive Tackle,
Wide Receiver
The fact that Carolina have no notable
free agents is not a testament to the front office's shrewdness in
locking up any potential notable FAs that might have left the team;
quite the opposite, in fact. It actually reflects how poor the talent
on this team is, with only three or four units that could really be
said to have both talent and depth (one of which is that criminally
underused backfield). Defensively, they have a very good pair of
defensive ends, and two great middle linebackers – which means
playing one of their best defensive talents out of position in a 4-3.
Outside of those four players, though, their defense is a shambles,
and they need to both seriously improve their entire secondary in a
pass-happy NFC South, and find some decent defensive tackles to
prevent offensive linemen just heading straight up into the secondary
to deal with Kuechly and Beason – something offenses can afford to
do while the DT situation remains as poor as it does.
Offensively, the biggest improvement
that can be made is if new offensive co-ordinator Mike Shula actually
uses the running backs the team paid so much for in order to make
life easier for Cam Newton. Newton would also greatly benefit from
the addition of a second receiving threat on the outside, as, right
now, opposing defensive co-ordinators can afford to rely on a
strategy of “double Steve Smith, keep an eye on Greg Olsen in the
middle, and otherwise sell out to stop the run”. The Panthers will
struggle on offense if they can't open up the entire field for Newton
to do what he does best, and that will simply not happen until
defenses are given something else to worry about in the passing game
besides an ageing receiver and a decent tight end.
New Orleans Saints
Notable Free Agents: Jermon Bushrod
(LT), Chris Ivory (RB, RFA), Sedrick Ellis (DT)
Holes: Outside Linebacker, Defensive
Backs, 3-4 Defensive End, Tackle
Unsurprisingly, the team with the worst
defense in NFL history has most of it's holes on the defensive side
of the ball – that much was patently true even before the team
announced they will be switching to a 3-4 under Rob Ryan. Taking into
account the change in base defense, it's clear that there needs to be
some major retooling in the front seven. They have a potential nose
tackle in Brodrick Bunkley, but with bust Sedrick Ellis a free agent,
they will need to find someone to play the 3-4 end position. More
importantly, however, is the need for a outside 3-4 linebackers to
pair with Cameron Jordan, with (presumably) Curtis Lofton and
Jonathan Vilma both manning the middle. Will Smith is on the decline,
and is not a good fit to move to the 'rush' linebacker position, so
an upgrade here is a must if the shift to the 3-4 is to be
successful.
Of course, even if they hadn't made the
switch in base defense, the secondary needed a massive overhaul. Both
safeties struggled in deep coverage, and the Saints were forced too
often to play bad corners in nickel and dime packages –
unfortunately, they are in such poor shape cap-wise, fixing both the
front seven and the back end in one season is not going to happen. If
I were advising the Saints, I'd work on the front seven first –
with Drew Brees under center, outscoring the opposition is always a
valid strategy, so it's more important to shore up the front seven
(to stop opponents controlling the clock on the ground) and then just
putting their faith in Breesus. Speaking of which, Jermon Bushrod was
hardly a good tackle, but he was solid (even though he clearly missed
the safety blanket of having Carl Nicks inside of him) – if they
don't re-sign him, the Saints need to do something to make sure Brees
stays up right, because without him, the Saints have pretty much
nothing right now.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Notable Free Agents: Michael Bennett
(DE), Ronde Barber (FS), Roy Miller (DT)
Holes: Corner, Free Safety, Defensive
Tackle, Tight End
As noted above, the Saints gave up more
yards last season than any defense in history. It speaks volumes,
therefore, about how bad the Bucs' secondary was that Tampa Bay
actually gave up more receiving yards than the Saints. There is no
question that the number one hole that needs to be filled in the
Bucs' roster is a corner... or that the number two hole that needs to
be filled is a second corner. Or that, also in the top five holes
that need to be filled, is free safety, with it looking like Ronde
Barber will be hanging up the #20 jersey after 16 years of service in
the red & pewter. While the offense went through huge peaks and
huge troughs over the season, nonetheless the Bucs secondary actively
lost the team three games on game winning drives – an improved
cornerback corps would have seen the 2012 Bucs into the playoffs,
instead of their third losing season in four years. Finding new
(better) starters at both CB spots instantly would fix a lot of what
ails the Bucs, as would a deep safety to cover the back end and allow
Mark Barron to do what he does best – playing in the box, covering
tight ends and laying huge hits in run support.
On the other side of the ball, there is
absolutely a need for a pass-catching tight end, with Dallas Clark
unlikely to return after an average-at-best season, and Luke Stocker
appearing to fail to develop into anything more than a decent run
blocker with a tendency to come down with a case of the 'dropsies'.
The Bucs have two legitimate stud receivers in Vincent Jackson and
Mike Williams, but have failed to find a tight end who can
consistently take advantage of the underneath routes cleared out by
VJax and MWill (as I have chosen to christen him). In a similar vein,
a solid and reliable slot receiver would be a great compliment to the
aerial attack, with Tiquan Underwood having a few highlight reel
catches but fading far too often when he his number was called. While
we're at it, the Bucs could undoubtedly use a long-term fix at right
tackle – or better yet, a right tackle who can, in a season or so,
take over from the far-too-overhyped Donald Penn at left tackle.
Finally, for all that the Bucs' passing
defense was more porous than a sponge in a blender, they did boast
the best run defense in the league last year. Unfortunately, two
major, major cogs in that top-ranked run D – defensive end Michael
Bennett (who is truly an elite run-stuffing
DE, as well as an ever-improving asset in brining pressure on
quarterbacks) and 1-tech Roy Miller (a two-down tackle only, but
absolutely beastly last season versus the run) – are both free
agents, and the Bucs have made no real concerted effort to retain
either at this point. Bennett will be hugely, hugely missed – but
the front office claim that they believe a now-healthy (for the
moment) Da'Quan Bowers can step into Bennett's role without a drop
off. Miller, however, will be harder to replace, as he did a
fantastic job out of the 'cocked nose' (YOU made that dirty, not me)
DT spot, forcing interior offensive linemen to double team on him and
freeing Gerald McCoy up to wreak havoc in the backfield. Without
Miller, the Bucs will need a solid defensive tackle if they want to
get the best out of McCoy, and the defensive line as a whole.
- Gur Samuel (@FredTheGur)
- The Pulling Linemen
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